A REVIEW OFCANADA’S PROPERTY CYCLES AND IDENTIFYING VALUE
September 2026
PRESENTED BY:
GEORGE HSU - Product Manager & Toronto Branch Manager
PEIXIAN QUEK - Investment Analyst
A REVIEW OF CANADA’S PROPERTY CYCLES AND IDENTIFYING VALUE
Looking back over the past 45 years, Canada’s national nominal home prices rose in 34 years and declined in 11, generating an average annualized return of about 5%. Even after adjusting for inflation and measuring in terms of real purchasing power, real home prices still rose in 31 years and fell in 14. Over the long run, real estate has demonstrated a consistent ability to generate positive real returns, which is a key reason why it has long been viewed by Chinese investors as a core asset-allocation holding.
However, since 2022, the high-interest rate environment, tighter immigration policies and an uncertain economic outlook have prompted many investors to reassess real-estate investments, with some capital remaining on the sidelines. Yet, real estate is not a monolithic asset class. Direct ownership of residential property, investing in publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) and ETFs, and allocations to private real-estate funds may all provide exposure to underlying physical real estate assets, but they differ significantly in terms of financing structures, transaction costs, tax considerations, operational management, portfolio composition, and valuation mechanisms. As a result, even within the same property cycle, different investment approaches can exhibit markedly different risk-return characteristics.
This report is divided into five parts and provides a systematic review of Canada’s real estate market cycles for investors. It then examines the current market environment to identify potential value opportunities and areas of investment potential.
In Part 1, we review the real estate REIT products previously offered by Enoch Wealth, examine their risk-return performance across different market cycles, and compare them with other major real estate investment approaches.
In Part 2, we further explore why, for ordinary investors, identifying the structural factors shaping the market can often be more important than forecasting the cycle, and examines how institutional investors are positioning themselves in the current cycle.
In Part 3, we review Canada’s property cycles over the past near half-century, analyze their main drivers and long-standing structural issues, and draw insights from history.
In Part 4, we provide an update on the liquidity pressures currently facing Canadian private real-estate funds, and compare the responses of Avenue Living and Centurion, as well as examine the similarities and differences between these measures and historical cases.
In Part 5, we consider the context of the current macroeconomic environment to discuss asset-allocation strategies and potential future investment opportunities.
